ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) has released its predictions for the 2026 college football season, and the outlook for Big 12 rivals BYU and Utah is promising. Both teams are expected to be competitive, with BYU ranked No. 20 and Utah No. 31 nationally, both second in the Big 12. This positive outlook is reflected in the FPI metrics, indicating a strong chance of success for both teams.
BYU's FPI score of 13.1 projects an impressive 8.7 wins, with a 93.1% chance of achieving six wins and bowl eligibility. The odds of an undefeated season are 1.4%, and the Cougars have a 16.5% chance of winning the Big 12, along with a 25.7% chance of making the College Football Playoff and a 2.2% chance of reaching the national championship game. These projections are a significant improvement from last year, when BYU was projected for 8.0 wins and a 12.6% chance of making the College Football Playoff, ultimately achieving 11-1 in the regular season and finishing ranked No. 11.
The Cougars' strength of schedule is a notable improvement, currently ranked 55th, up from 74th last season. This is particularly impressive given that BYU will host Notre Dame, ranked No. 3 in the FPI, and play Utah, ranked No. 31, in the conference. The Cougars' highest-rated Big 12 home opponent is Arizona, ranked No. 34, and they will face the Wildcats in the league opener on September 12.
Utah's FPI score of 8.5 projects 7.7 wins, with an 83.7% chance of achieving six wins and bowl eligibility. The odds of an undefeated season are 0.4%, and the Utes have a 5.9% chance of winning the Big 12, a 11.1% chance of making the College Football Playoff, and a 0.6% chance of reaching the national championship game. Last year, Utah exceeded expectations, ending with an 11-2 record and a top 15 ranking, despite being projected for 6.4 wins and a 67.3% chance of bowl eligibility.
The Utes' strength of schedule is currently ranked 63rd, a favorable position for a team returning several key players. This is a significant improvement from last season, when Utah's strength of schedule was 58th, but notably higher than this year. Utah will face BYU, ranked No. 20, at home on November 7, and the SEC's Arkansas, ranked No. 47, in nonconference play on September 12.
In summary, both BYU and Utah have strong FPI projections for the 2026 season, with a high chance of success in the Big 12 Conference. The Cougars and Utes are expected to be competitive, with a good chance of making the College Football Playoff and reaching the national championship game. The improved strength of schedule and favorable matchups for both teams bode well for their prospects in the upcoming season.
